Is AI Stupid or a Natural Disaster? – 長期投資で年金問題なんて怖くない

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SoftBank and Toyota’s market capitalization temporarily reversed. This phenomenon is similar to what happened just before the IT bubble burst in February 2000. Funds poured into SoftBank, and its market capitalization surged to nearly 20 trillion yen. However, after the bubble burst, SoftBank’s market capitalization fell to about one-third of its peak.

What about this time? SoftBank’s weakness is that it invests in many startups, resulting in low cash inflow. The difference with Berkshire is the solidity of its investments. Masayoshi Son is the opposite of Warren Buffett, who takes risks. While expectations are high for Son, he’s ultimately a bubble-era figure.

How will AI judge SoftBank’s future and stock price? This will test whether AI is stupid or not.

〇 US Bond Market; Interest Rate Hike Expectations

Strong employment figures in the employment statistics caused government bond yields to surge. Medium-term bond yields, in particular, rose, and the yield curve became bearishly flat. The bond market is wary of interest rate hikes.

This rise in interest rates will widen the interest rate differential between Japan and the US. The yen will weaken. Unilateral intervention won’t stop the current yen depreciation. The Bank of Japan needs to raise interest rates for now.

〇 US Stock Market: Reset

With a major IPO approaching, there will likely be a movement towards cashing out. With stock prices high, the index composition will change, so profit-taking will be crucial.

For now, we can’t move until we see SpaceX. It’s an overvalued stock, but there are many investors who need to buy it. If you want to invest, individual stocks are risky, so consider the Nasdaq 100 ETF.

〇 Japanese Stocks: NT Ratio Remains High

The NT ratio is historically high at 16.8 times. Funds are concentrating in some stocks such as Kioxia, SoftBank, and Tokyo Electron, pushing up the Nikkei average. The US semiconductor index fell 10.26% over the weekend. With the major SQ (Special Quotation) coming up next week, selling pressure is likely.