Value Is the Way to Go – 長期投資で年金問題なんて怖くない

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Capital in the stock market is shifting from growth stocks to value stocks. Last week, the MSCI USA Value Index rose 0.43%, outperforming the MSCI USA Growth Index, which fell 1.74%. The Japanese market saw a similar trend; the TOPIX Value Index gained 3.99% week-on-week, significantly outperforming the TOPIX Growth Index, which rose 1.04%.

The NT ratio (Nikkei 225 divided by TOPIX) contracted to 16.10x from the previous week’s 16.36x, indicating buying interest in TOPIX constituents.

Among TOPIX constituents, the number of stocks trading below a price-to-book ratio (PBR) of 1.0x fell from 578 to 556 (a decrease of 22).

Within this group of stocks trading below 1.0x PBR, banking stocks saw particular buying interest driven by expectations of interest rate hikes. Regional banks posted notable gains: Ehime Bank (+20.60% week-on-week), Oita Bank (+14.20%), Awa Bank (+13.80%), Akita Bank (+12.30%), and Shikoku Bank (+12.0%). This trend is driven by growing speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates amidst a weak yen that is pushing up import prices.

In contrast, major banks (megabanks) already trade above the 1.0x PBR threshold—Mitsubishi at 1.90x, Sumitomo Mitsui at 1.73x, and Mizuho at 1.86x—making regional bank stocks appear to have been “laggards” with room to catch up.

In the US S&P 500 index, only 11 stocks trade below a PBR of 1.0x. With clouds gathering over AI and semiconductor-related stocks in the US market, Japanese value stocks present an attractive alternative.

〇 US Stock Market: From AI-related to Defense

As the situation in the Middle East deteriorated, crude oil prices rapidly rebounded to the $90-per-barrel range. In the U.S., while AI-related stocks have plummeted, defense and steel-related stocks are seeing buying interest. Lockheed Martin rose 14.51% and Raytheon 9.96% week-over-week; among steelmakers, Cleveland-Cliffs surged 28.56%, Nucor rose 4.63%, and Steel Dynamics gained 4.93%.

Nippon Steel also performed solidly, rising 5.34%.

〇 SpaceX: Struggling

SpaceX’s stock price hit an all-time low of $115.07, closing at $123.09. Its free-float market capitalization has shrunk to 12 trillion yen. Corporate bond spreads have widened; specifically, spreads on ultra-long-term bonds have expanded by 7–9 basis points. The spread on the bond maturing in July 2056 has widened from T+175bp at issuance to T+338bp, while the spread on the shortest-term bond (maturing July 2031) has widened from T+110bp to T+193bp.

〇 Caterpillar-Komatsu Ratio: Komatsu Showing Strength

Buying interest in Komatsu has caused the Caterpillar-Komatsu ratio to contract to 10.84x. Komatsu’s forward P/E ratio stands at 15.88x, making it undervalued compared to Sandvik (19.92x) and Caterpillar (35.92x). While Caterpillar faces upward resistance—partly because it had previously been bought as an AI-related play—Komatsu stands out for its relative undervaluation.