Japanese Stocks are Okay: Inflation is a Freind – 長期投資で年金問題なんて怖くない

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Live performance announcement! We’ll be performing at Tokyo Club. Our band will mainly play Radiohead songs. If you’re interested, please come and see us!

April 18th (Saturday) Event List (March 2026) | Live Music & Bar Tokyo Club

April 18th, 2026 (Saturday) Doors open at 12:30 | Live Music & Bar Tokyo Club

(Suidobashi branch)

This might be the last concert for our pianist/drummer, so we’d be grateful if you could come and give us some encouragement.

The stock market is being tossed around by Trump. Oil prices remain high, and inflation risks are rising globally. Japan, in particular, is facing a double whammy: high oil prices and a weakening yen. Concerns are emerging in the stock market about worsening corporate performance due to increased costs.

On the other hand, inflation works positively for the stock market. This is because inflation lowers the value of money, causing funds to flow from cash and bonds into the stock market.

While Turkey, experiencing hyperinflation, is seeing its currency hit record lows, its stock market remains strong near record highs. Turkish companies are benefiting from the weaker lira, with many reporting strong earnings.

Japan’s inflation rate won’t rise to Turkey’s level (30%), but the Bank of Japan’s inability to raise interest rates creates an environment where funds are easily flowing from bonds and cash into the stock market.

Stocks of companies highly dependent on overseas sales are particularly attractive.

Therefore, don’t panic and sell your Japanese stocks. Even if the US market falls, Japanese stocks won’t collapse entirely.

Recent news articles have mentioned impending crashes. Stock prices are built on bubbles, and even if they burst, they will eventually recover. As long as you choose your stocks wisely, there shouldn’t be a problem.

* US: SpaceX’s IPO is key

SpaceX’s IPO could take place as early as June. Its market capitalization is estimated at 280 trillion yen, and it will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index. Nasdaq has proposed a new rule, “Fast Entry,” for SpaceX. This will allow for index inclusion as early as 15 business days after listing. Index funds need to consider the fund balance in light of this giant stock’s listing. Therefore, they must adjust the allocation ratio of FAANG stocks. This means that large-cap stocks such as Apple, NVDA, Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcom, Tesla, Meta, and Alphabet are likely to see selling pressure.

Personally, I will invest in SpaceX eventually, but it’s too expensive, so until then, I think a Nasdaq 100 fund is sufficient.

* Japan: Buy on dips, focusing on value stocks

High oil prices, a weak yen, and recent price increases create an environment prone to inflation. The Bank of Japan is hesitant to raise interest rates due to the increased risk of economic downturn. Even without interest rate hikes, market interest rates will rise, and the value of money will decrease. Funds with nowhere else to go will flow into growth and value stocks.

The number of TOPIX constituent stocks with a PBR below 1 decreased from 574 last week to 558.

* Commodity Prices: Focus on commodity prices.

Going forward, pay attention to market prices for wheat, corn, soybeans, etc., as they are leading indicators of inflation.

* India: The IPO market is loosening.

Oversupply is evident, and many stocks are seeing their initial trading price fall below the offering price. The average opening price (compared to the offering price) for the six stocks listed this week was -1.83%. The lowest was Amir Chand Jagdish at -8.01%. Three out of the six stocks saw their initial trading price fall more than 5% below the offering price.