Quantum and Space-Related Stock Market Has Arrived – 長期投資で年金問題なんて怖くない

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〇 US Stocks: IBM Soars

IBM, which announced it will establish a quantum-dedicated foundry with up to $1 billion in support from the US Department of Commerce, saw its stock price rise by approximately 17% in one week. Even so, its year-to-date increase is only around 2.1%, underperforming the Dow and S&P 500 indices. The stock price is also at an affordable level. Will it become the next Intel?

The US seems determined to lead the world in quantum computing.

Also, space-related stocks are performing well ahead of SpaceX’s IPO. Stock prices for companies like Planet Labs and Moog Inc. rose by about 15% compared to the previous week. Many stocks have more than doubled year-to-date.

On the other hand, this week, stock prices for AI power infrastructure-related companies like GE Vernova and Caterpillar have been struggling to rise.

Is capital beginning to flow from AI to quantum and space?

〇 Japan: NT Ratio at an Abnormal Level

The NT ratio, calculated by dividing the Nikkei 225 by the TOPIX, is at a historically high level of 16.7 times. The Nikkei 225’s year-to-date return is 31.76%, while the TOPIX is up 16.08%. A key factor in the Nikkei’s rise is the sharp increase in Kioxia Holdings. Kioxia’s year-to-date return is 531%, significantly exceeding the second-place Furukawa Electric’s 420%.

Kioxia’s projected P/E ratio is in the 9x range, making its stock price relatively undervalued compared to other semiconductor companies. It’s likely to continue rising for the time being. The Nikkei 225 is aiming for 70,000 yen first. The NT ratio is likely to widen further.

On the other hand, the TOPIX appears to be lagging behind. While stocks with a PBR below 1x are attracting attention due to the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s stock price reform, the number of stocks with a PBR below 1x (TOPIX) has increased to 588 (from 556 at the end of January). The Japanese stock market is distorted globally. It’s a market where low risk and high returns can be expected. It’s a good time to invest. Go Honda!

Similar to the US, space-related investments are attracting attention in Japan. The performance of space-related funds sold in Japan has significantly outperformed the Nikkei 225 (year-to-date return of 31.76%). Among them, eMAXIS

eMAXIS NEO’s space development fund has risen 170% in one year, far exceeding the performance of other space-related funds.

〇 Yen Bonds: Ultra-long term bonds are being bought, and the curve is flattening.

The announcement of a reduction in the issuance amount of 40-year bonds (FY2014) led to increased buying of 40-year bonds, causing the yield curve to reverse between 40-year and 30-year bonds.

The Tokyo CPI for May was announced at 1.4% (market expectation 1.6%). Really? It seemed like a discrepancy with reality. This is because rents just rose 11.7% this month.

Personally, I think a 50bp interest rate hike will be implemented in June. If Japanese interest rates rise, there will be a temporary reversal of the yen carry trade, which may lead to increased buying of the yen. However, since interest rates in Japan are still low compared to other countries, this is only a temporary movement. The environment is not yet conducive to aggressively raising interest rates. Considering the inflation rate, a level of 2.0% seems appropriate.

〇Caterpillar-Komatsu Ratio

Caterpillar’s market capitalization is 64.22 trillion yen, 10.49 times that of Komatsu (6.11 trillion yen). As Caterpillar was sold and Komatsu was bought, the ratio narrowed slightly.

〇India: Yellow Lights for the Economy

This week, India released its April loan balances. Both mortgage and student loan balances were negative for the first time since May 2025. Rising oil prices, currency depreciation, and layoffs due to the introduction of AI seem to be flashing yellow lights for the Indian economy.