Someone stop the war, the risk of stagnation is increasing.

投稿日: 投稿者: タダシ

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Following the US-Iran war, crude oil prices surged. Capital markets are wary of stagflation risks, leading to a decline in stocks and a rise in bond yields. While the US dollar remains firm, the yen is falling. Japan is experiencing a triple decline.

There’s no need to force yourself to participate in the stock market at a time like this; sometimes it’s best to rest. The Nikkei average had risen sharply this year, so even with this decline, the rate of return remains positive.

Those investing in blue-chip stocks don’t need to panic and sell their holdings.

Dividend ex-dates are approaching, and dividend-seeking activity will likely occur during price declines. I believe the downside risk for blue-chip, low-priced growth stocks is small. Komatsu is a good example.

 

I can only hope the war ends soon.

 

 

US Credit Market: Risk Off

 

Credit spreads on junk bonds are widening sharply, indicating a risk-off sentiment. Government bond yields are also rising. There’s a movement towards cashing out.

〇 US Stocks: Semiconductors, Power, and Data Center Infrastructure Remain Strong, Defense Demand Down

While many US stocks declined, semiconductor-related and power/data center-related stocks remained strong.

〇 Japan: Triple Decline

The Japanese market experienced a triple decline due to concerns over high oil prices, resulting in a weaker yen, lower stock prices, and lower bond prices. In markets like this, it’s best to target value and high-dividend blue-chip stocks. It’s not yet a good time to invest.

If you still want to invest, consider the crude oil ETF (1671).

 

〇 Emerging Markets: Risk Off

Emerging market ETFs declined across the board. South Africa, Israel, Vietnam, and Indonesian ETFs fell by over 4% (week-on-week). Turkey rose against the trend.

 

〇 Commodities: Someone Stop the Oil!

Oil prices rose. Wheat rose 4.6% across all varieties. Rising commodity prices are a negative factor for the Japanese economy. Going forward, pay attention to import prices. They are a leading indicator of inflation.

〇 India: Long-term stance

India is a country highly dependent on oil imports. The stock market has fallen sharply due to concerns over high crude oil prices. Major stock indices have fallen by more than 10% at the beginning of the year.

Investing in India is a 10-year timeframe. I plan to invest 10,000 yen per month for 20 years through a NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account) and sell 240,000 yen worth annually starting at age 75. I hope it will be around 1 million yen by then.

Data: Bloomberg

Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA)

Certified Securities Analysts Association (CMA)

AFP

Tadashi Fujii

投稿者プロフィール

タダシ
大学時代から株式投資をはじめ、証券会社のトレーダーとなる。以後、30年
金融畑一筋。専門分野は債券、クレジット。
日本証券アナリスト協会検定会員（CMA）、国際公認投資アナリスト（CIIA)

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